The intriguing aspect of weather forecasting, or better still snow forecasts, is everything can change with slight temperature differences or a change in the weather model.
Earlier this week most forecasters had VERY BIG numbers on this storm, some easily topping over the 100cm as a high point. To get the heart really racing, it started snowing heavily on Tuesday, earlier in the day in Victoria and then later afternoon in NSW.
Snow will fall tonight in the alpine region and when you awake on Wednesday morning and make a mad scrambling panic to see your resort web cams, you will be salivating and saying, YES, the season is off to a flying start. On Thursday morning it will be even better after big snow on Wednesday. Plus temperatures will be cold, and the southerly directing straight from Antarctica will be frigid.
Looking at some weather sites this evening, it seems Wednesday is still ‘Big Wednesday’, the Thursday big numbers “may” have subsided slightly, Friday it eases and still potential for snow showers on Saturday.
So perhaps we can expect the lower to mid range of the big numbers which is still fantastic. Hey, if we get more, I am all for that.
Consider this, all resorts had snowmaking well under way, and a good 40cm or more on top of their snowmaking runs is awesome. Those runs will be in great shape ands after a day or two of the snowcats pushing snow around, runs will open. Friday will be good to see the web cams if it clears slightly just to see the mountains transform.
This will set up the June long weekend perfectly. Pack the skis as well as the après boots.
In NSW, Thredbo will open with good cover on at least Merritts area, Friday Flat and High Noon you would think.
Perisher have been open since last Friday and with this latest snow will be on their way to open multiple lifts. Smiggins is looking ok this afternoon, the quad to mid station is a near surety, and who knows what else could open.
Remember, the new snow still must be pushed around at all resorts for chairs and t-bars to open and make the slopes safe. It will happen, just be patient.
Either way, we will receive good snow, and if you always look at the lower numbers, be grateful for that and wish for the higher numbers, you don’t get your hopes up too high. (But still get excited)
Plus, remember it is only the 8th of June, the season is already starting well plus many more snow falls to come.
Weatherzone this evening is still forecasting good numbers, 40-80cm as a total accumulation which is amazing.
On the BOM, Wednesday shows 35-45cm, dropping to 8-15cm on Thursday and possibly 5-10cm on Friday. They still forecast some show showers on Saturday.
It will be interesting to see the Snowatch forecast in the morning, Pete ‘The Frog’ Taylor only updates in the early am.
East Coast low pressure systems have always been tricky and depending on temperatures it all changes quickly.
Last year unexpectedly Jindabyne and surrounding areas at about 900m level had massive snowfalls when it was not predicted.
So, wait and see is a good way to proceed, and if you have to drive, look at the forecast and note where snow has fallen over the next few days. The roads will be slippery in the alpine for sure. Pack the chains.